I have a friend who knows about this stuff

These are his tips:

PICTURE: Birdman
DIRECTOR: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (close runner up: Richard Linklater)
ACTOR: Eddie Redmayne (close runner up Michael Keaton)
ACTRESS: Julianne Moore
SUPPORT ACTOR: JK Simmonds
SUPPORT ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette

This is what the Economist thinks:

I’m going with “Selma”.

Or “Boyhood”

(“American Sniper” is too simplistically right wing for Hollywood, “Imitation Game” and “Theory of Everything” aren’t about Mercans and “Budapest Hotel” is even foreignerer…)

But the again – what do I know…?